|
Using Time Value and Market Fundamentals
(A Suggested Trading Approach for Selling Options)
If utilized correctly, option selling can be a very consistent trading strategy. However, embarking on a campaign of blindly selling options at every turn is certainly not recommended. Liberty Trading recommends a simple strategy that we feel delivers the most consistent results.
Overview
Liberty Trading uses a combination of Fundamental and Seasonal analysis to project general price direction over a 2-3 month period. We then select far out of the money options with 2-3 months time remaining until expiration. As an option seller, you do not have to be concerned so much as to where prices will go, but more so, where price will not go. You therefore want to select price levels that could only be achieved through a radical change in fundamentals. The object is to select the options with highest probability of expiring worthless, even if you have to wait a few months for them to do so.
Significance of Selling Options with Time Value Only
An option’s value is made up of intrinsic value and time value. Intrinsic value is how much the option would be worth if it was exercised today. In other words, it is how far it is in the money. For instance, if December Crude Oil was trading near $80 per barrel, a December Crude Oil $82 put option would have 2 dollars worth ($2,000) of intrinsic value. The rest of the value of the option would consist of how much time was left on the option or time value. We do not recommend selling options with intrinsic value. On the other hand, if December Crude was at $80 per barrel and a trader elected to sell a $60 put option, that option would be a full $20 out of the money and therefore have no intrinsic value. The full value of the option would consist of time value only. December Crude Oil would have to fall a full 20 dollars per barrel before the option would go in the money and have any intrinsic value at all.
As a seller of options, you want to sell time value. You want to put time on your side. In the example above, as long as December Crude Oil stays anywhere above $60, the option will not have any intrinsic value. As its only value is in time, as time passes, the option’s time value will erode, slowly at first, then rapidly at the end. Of course, movement in the futures market can temporarily affect the value of the option as well. A move lower could temporarily push the value of the put option higher, but it will still have no intrinsic value if the futures price is above $60. Futures prices moving higher, in this example, would accelerate the deterioration of the option.
|
|
|
Example: December '07 Crude Oil
 In early September 2007, the sky looks like the limit for crude oil prices. The market is making new highs at over 77.50 per barrel. Trader John wants to benefit from the bull market but is fearful of getting stopped out on a correction. Therefore, instead of buying a call or buying a crude oil futures contract, John decides to sell a December $60 put. Now the market can move higher as John projected, stay the same, or even move moderately lower. As long as the price is anywhere above $60 at expiration, the option will have no intrinsic value and expire worthless, allowing John, the seller, to keep all premium collected as profit.
Notice that the market did not correct and continued on to make highs near $90. The trade would have worked well for call buyers, futures buyers or put sellers. However, had a correction occurred, with the fundamentals remaining bullish and John’s strike price way down at $60, it is likely that John would have been able to remain in his position while most of his futures trading buddies would be running for the doors. John was not trying to hit the “home-run.” John was just trying to take advantage of a bull market in a semi-conservative way. Most trades do not move immediately in a traders favor, making the option selling strategy all the more valuable.
Traders bearish crude could utilize this same strategy by selling calls far above the market as the market approached its highs.
The benefit? If you are bullish crude and you sell a December $60 put, the market can move higher as you projected. But it is not necessary. Prices can stay the same or even move moderately lower. As long as the price is anywhere above $60 at expiration, the option will have no intrinsic value and expire worthless, allowing you, the seller, to keep all premium collected as profit.
|
| |
Suggested Time Value
There are significant reasons for selling options with 2-3 months of remaining time value.
- As discussed above, the physical commodities, especially energies and agricultural commodities such as Coffee, Soybeans or Sugar, generally have fundamentals (such as warehouse supplies, consumption trends, or planting and harvest cycles) that do not change over the course of a few months. By positioning only in markets with the most clear cut fundamentals (bullish or bearish), a trader can sell options with added confidence in his position, knowing that for his option(s) to ever go in the money, the market must make a sustained, long term move that is contrary to the fundamental factors that ultimately should determine price.
- Writing Options with this much time until expiration also allows the trader to sell strike prices much further out of the money. Thus the market has a much larger cushion to move against his position without significantly affecting the value of the option. This gives the trader not only staying power but eliminates the need for perfect timing of a trade.
- This is often the time period that options enter the "sweet spot" of deterioration. An option value slowly decays over time but 2-3 months before expiration is generally when this deterioration begins to accelerate. Thus, a trader would want to sell the options right before this time period to collect maximum premiums and minimize his/her exposure. As the option begins to deteriorate in value, the chances of the option expiring in the money begin to decrease while the chances of it expiring worthless begin to increase.
Market Fundamentals and Option Selling
In our opinion, technical indicators can be an effective tool in projecting short term moves in the market. However, eventually, prices will have to reflect the fundamentals factors of any given commodity. Many traders and even brokers use technical analysis as their sole means of trading, simply because they don't know the fundamentals or they don't have access to the resources that are necessary to gain timely, relevant fundamental data. Learning the fundamentals of a market and how they can affect price can be time consuming and difficult.
In our opinion, trading solely on a technical basis is like trying to hit a baseball with one eye closed: your perspective is going to be off. If you're investing capital into a commodity trading idea, you'd better know the fundamentals of the market you're trading, or be working with somebody that does. Markets can experience impressive looking breakouts to the upside or downside, but without the corresponding fundamentals to support such a move, a sustained trend is highly unlikely. Often times, a chart breaking out in defiance of clear cut fundamentals can be an excellent option selling opportunity as many traders will tend to buy calls or puts in the direction of the breakout, driving premiums disproportionately higher. The example on the following page illustrates this concept.
|
| |
EXAMPLE: FUNDAMENTALS AND OPTION SELLING
 The summer of 2007 saw coffee prices trade in about a 10 cent range from June through the beginning of September. At that time, reports of dry weather in Brazilian growing regions brought a wave of spec buying into the market, causing a technical breakout above key resistance near 1.29 per pound. Commercials, aware that September is almost always dry, watched the scenario play out and then began locking in higher prices near 1.37 -1.42 per pound. This heavy commercial selling drove the market back through the spec stops, further igniting a downward move. Timely rains did begin to arrive in October, getting the 08 Brazilian coffee crop off to a good start. While analysts are reducing the 2008 yields slightly, the 2008 Brazilian coffee harvest is expected to produce upwards of 50 million bags of coffee – one of the largest harvests on record. The market, of course, has begun to gravitate back towards it’s old trading range.
A pure technician might have bought the breakout above 1.29, 1.35 or 1.40 and even could have netted a some decent profits - had he sold right before the drop. However, this was a rally led by speculation and not based on the true fundamentals ultimately affecting coffee prices. Spec led rallies are almost always fickle and tend to start quickly and end quickly. A trader aware of the bearish fundamentals (seasonal weather and expected crop yields) hanging over the market probably wouldn’t have touched it. But how should he take advantage of the fundamental knowledge that he possessed? Should the investor try to time a point to short the futures? Not advisable.
What if the investor could sell calls far above the market at strike prices nearly 50% above the current price of the commodity? In the breakout in the example above, a trader could have sold March 250 coffee calls for premiums of $400 each. As long as coffee prices do not experience a 50% increase in value (heading into what could be the largest Brazilian coffee harvest ever), the option will expire worthless.
The example above was an excellent call writing opportunity as the premiums inflated on the break out. The trade would have netted a quick profit when the market moved lower very rapidly. However, if the option seller’s timing had been off, or if coffee had rallied for a few more days or weeks, his position was still “miles” above the market and a continuance of the rally would still have allowed him to hold his fundamentally based position, a luxury the futures trader would not have enjoyed (unless he would have been willing to post a substantial margin to cover his losing position). In other words, the option value would have increased, but not significantly enough to force the trader out of his position.
Why can these options be sold so far out of the money? Because historic volatility allows it. Spec traders still remember the “glory days” of coffee in the mid 90’s when coffee prices soared above 2.00 per pound and they are still willing to take a chance that it will go there again. However, the fundamental scenario in the coffee market today is very different from what it was in the early and mid 90’s. An investor educated in the fundamentals knows this and can use it to his advantage.
|
| |
|
You can follow our regular updates on the coffee market on our Market Commentary page.
Summary
In our opinion, writing far out of the money options is a custom tailored strategy for trading long term fundamentals. By writing options, you not only give the market plenty of room to make short term moves against your position, you also force the market to make a sustained, long term advance against the fundamentals for you to be stopped out of your position. You avoid all the technical "noise" that futures traders are trying to interpret on a daily basis. We do not mean to dismiss technical trading as useless. Quite the contrary, we advise using key technical indicators to time entry into short option positions. However, if you are selling options with any amount of time value, the fundamentals of the particular commodity should be given some strong consideration before choosing markets in which to write premium.
A Final Note
Please do not feel that to write options effectively, you must become an expert in option theory or spend 6 months learning the fundamentals of a particular commodity. Remember, you will be working with an option writing specialist. At Liberty Trading, our research is focused on knowing the fundamentals of a select group of commodities and then applying option knowledge to identify trading opportunities. Sharing market commentary with several worldwide news services such as Dow Jones News, Bloomberg News and Reuters on a daily basis allows us access to these individuals in researching crop ratings, historical yield comparisons, consumption trends, usage figures, etc, in commodities produced worldwide. Should you choose to become a client of our firm, you will not only have access to this information, but receive professional guidance in positioning your portfolio.
If you have any questions about the trading strategy or portfolios with our firm, please feel free to call us at 800-346-1949.
- James Cordier, Michael Gross, Liberty Trading Group
|
|
|
